September 3 — According to a report from Axios, Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently stated that approximately 80% of the company's long-term value will come from its humanoid robot, Optimus, rather than its traditional automotive business. This declaration represents Musk's latest effort to reposition Tesla beyond an "electric vehicle manufacturer" and toward a company centered on artificial intelligence and automation.

Tesla's latest delivery figures reveal that global vehicle sales have declined quarter-over-quarter for multiple consecutive periods, with approximately 75% of current revenue still dependent on its two flagship models, the Model 3 and Model Y. Addressing investor concerns, Musk has consistently emphasized that Tesla's long-term future will be defined by "AI, robotics, and autonomous robotaxis."

Master Plan Part 4: Vision vs. Reality

Tesla's recently released "Master Plan Part 4" outlines a vision of "sustainable abundance," proposing a widespread integration of AI capabilities into humanoid robots and a network of autonomous taxis. However, the document has faced significant market skepticism due to its absence of concrete timelines and financial projections. Fred Lambert, Editor-in-Chief of EV-focused publication Electrek, remarked candidly: "The entire plan is filled with AI utopian slogans that even Grok [Musk's AI chatbot] could easily generate."

Notably, long-time Tesla supporter Ark Investment Management predicted in a recent analysis that the robotaxi business alone could represent 90% of Tesla's valuation by 2029. Ark suggests that with Tesla's safety-driver-equipped Robotaxi pilot already operational in Austin, Texas, the company is positioned to challenge Waymo in the future $10 trillion global autonomous driving market. Nevertheless, several Wall Street institutions remain skeptical about Optimus achieving commercial viability within the next five years.

Beyond automotive sales, Tesla's remaining revenue derives primarily from energy storage and services, but these segments constitute less than a quarter of total income. The humanoid robot remains in the prototype testing phase and has yet to generate any revenue. Industry analysts note that if Musk's projections are accurate, Tesla will need to achieve significant breakthroughs in mass production capabilities, regulatory approval processes, and practical application scenarios for its robots.

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